Wednesday, May 12, 2010
The Federal Budget is hardly the most riveting document you are ever likely to read. Sure you know it’s important, but the problem is that it’s a huge document with countless facts, figures and tables. And when it comes to analysis, economists seem to be writing for other economists; and accountants writing for other accountants.
It’s always important to remember that it is just a budget, the same that any household or company would prepare. Assumptions are made; forecasts are taken. And sometimes they can go awry – remember last year Treasury thought we were headed for recession, while unemployment was expected to hit 8.5 per cent. We didn’t experience a recession and unemployment peaked at 5.8 per cent.
At the end of the day most people want to know what’s in it for them. It doesn’t matter whether you are a student, pensioner or CEO of a major company.
So we have decided to make this analysis different.
Sure, there are the usual tables, graphs, facts and figures. But we reckon that there are only three questions most people want answered and that’s where we will be concentrating:
• Did the Government get it right?
• What does it mean for Australia?
• Who are the winners and losers?
First things first
• This year (2009/10) the budget deficit is tipped to hit $57.1 billion (4.4 per cent of our economy or GDP). Last November, a deficit of $57.7 billion was expected.
• Next year (2010/11) the deficit is tipped to be $40.8 billion (2.9 per cent of GDP), better than the $46.6 billion deficit forecast six months ago.
• The budget is expected to return to surplus three years early in 2012/13.
• Most of the measures have been previously announced: Health fund reform; company tax cut; resources super profits tax; increase in super fund levy and personal tax cuts.
Did the Government get it right?
• The Government believes that a no-frills, no-nonsense budget is required. We beg to differ. Australia was successful in avoiding recession last year and, unlike other advanced nations, is not weighed down by huge deficits and debits. We should be building on that success. Spending should be cut, not curbed, so that the Reserve Bank – and home-buyers – don’t have to shoulder the burden.
• But policy decisions since November last year increase the deficit by $3 billion. The Budget deficit is tipped to improve by over $16 billion next year, but none of the improvement is due to Government efforts. The deficit is expected to improve by over $31 billion in 2011/12 and only $600 million of that is due to Government.
• The Henry Tax Review has been handed down but the Government has only opted for only a handful of the 138 recommendations. But where the Government deserves credit is to show some discipline on spending. (Effectively it’s promised a lot, but nothing happens any time soon). So we give the Budget a mark of: 13/20.
• Of course, we have to take a moment to focus on the budget setting. Last year the budget was set against the background of the global financial crisis. One by one, major economies were slipping into recession, and while our government tried to protect our economy as much as possible, policy-makers seemed resigned to the fact that we would probably go down the same path.
• The Government spent freely by way of cash hand-outs; tax breaks for businesses; home insulation schemes; spending on schools; and building social housing. As a result the budget moved from a surplus of almost $20 billion to a deficit of just over $47 billion. The Reserve Bank slashed interest rates from 7.25 per cent to 3.00 per cent. And it worked – Australia avoided recession.
• Of course the fact that we did so well then caused some to argue that we spent too much and cut rates too far. Hindsight is a marvellous thing. But it seemed like the right idea at the time. Of course not all the money was well spent, but that’s another story.
• This year the budget has been set against the background of a domestic economy now doing perhaps a little too well. The Reserve Bank has been active in winding back the stimulus, lifting cash rates 1.5 percentage points in just eight months. There have been concerns that we are witnessing Mk II of the commodity boom, with consequences for economic growth and inflation in Australia.
• But in the last few weeks, the positive sentiment has been dented by the European debt crisis (EDC). Could this be the second act of last year’s financial crisis, leading to ‘W’-shaped economies? That is, many countries recorded ‘V-shaped’ recoveries, but are they now headed south again?
• We would argue that our economy remains in strong shape; that China will continue to expand strongly; that Greece won’t de-rail the global economy; and that the US economy is on the path to recovery. On that basis, the Government should be winding back stimulus to the economy.
• The Government has given a commitment not to increase spending by more than 2 per cent in real terms until the budget surplus is more than 1 per cent of GDP.
• But while the government is to be applauded for its commitment to restrain spending growth, it has been lazy in other areas of fiscal (budget) policy.
What does it mean for Australia?
• Managing the economy is very much a balancing act. The Reserve Bank has a role by setting interest rates (monetary policy). And the Government has a role in deciding what to spend, where to spend and how to pay for it (fiscal policy).
• You can’t have one arm of policy moving one way, and the other arm of policy moving the other way. But that is very much that situation. The Reserve Bank has been winding back stimulus and now arguably monetary policy is neutral – not boosting or slowing down the economy.
• Given that monetary policy alone is controlling our economy, we believe the cash rate will have to rise further over the coming year to around 6 per cent by the end of next year.
• Over the coming year, the budget deficit is expected to improve by around $16 billion or just over 1 per cent of GDP. But all of that will come by natural means or the “automatic stabilisers” – more employment, so less unemployment benefits and more taxes; and higher company profits, so again more taxes. But the government isn’t doing anything to improve the bottom line. That is, there is little in the way of discretionary measures to cut spending or boost revenues.
• Still, it is an election year. To what extent could we reasonably expect the Government to slash and burn in this environment?
Who are the winners & losers?
• Low-income earners: There is another round of tax cuts. But even for those on $50,000 a year it works out at just an extra $5.77 a week. Tax simplification and less tax on bank deposits – but you’ll have to wait. Workers under $37,000 get extra $500 in super.
• Middle-income earners: Someone on $100,000 a year gets an extra $9.62 a week from July 1 via tax cuts.
• High-income earners: Those on $150,000 a year get a tax cut of $19.23 a week.
• Pensioners: No change. Cheaper medications from health fund reforms.
• Investors: Most investors hope for a satisfactory negotiation between the Government and miners on the super profits tax.
• Companies: Nothing in the short-term. Small business gets a tax cut from July 2012.
Source Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson
Friday 16 April 2010 Quote of the Week "Keep away from small people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that, but the really great make you feel that you, too, can become great." 1. Home lending falters Finance for both new and existing dwellings took a tumble in February, according to figures released this week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Loans for the purchase of new homes were effectively flat in February 2010, while loans for established dwellings (net of refinancing) dropped by 2.8 per cent to the lowest level since September 2008. The number of loans for construction fell for a fourth consecutive month in February 2010, down by 3.1 per cent to reach the lowest level since July last year. In seasonally adjusted terms the total number of owner occupier loans fell by 5.2 per cent in New South Wales, 3.5 per cent in Queensland, 8 per cent in South Australia, 5.3 per cent in Tasmania and 1.4 per cent in the Australian Capital Territory. The total number of loans was flat in the Northern Territory and increased by 1.3 per cent in Victoria and by 3.7 per cent in Western Australia. 2. Window coverings go bare The combined threat of a global financial meltdown and environmental change has resulted in a widespread return to basics in many things, including the way we decorate our homes, it seems. "Using a clean color palette along with natural elements reduces clutter and makes rooms feel larger", said Blinds Chalet spokesman Chris Stanley. "Over the years, colours have ranged from bold print patterns, to stripes, but 2010 is the year for a back-to-basics mentality", he added. Upgrading window fittings is a quick and reasonably inexpensive way to increase property values. However, the use of bold colours and extravagant fabrics can deter potential buyers. "When a person enters a home with intent of buying, they need to be able to see themselves in that home", Chris Stanley said. "Using neutral colors and removing personal effects allows people of all different tastes to picture their new life." Blinds Chalet recommends a simple, clean palette of colors including cotton, cocoa and snow white. Honeycomb shades are gaining in popularity because they improve the home's insulation and are available in environmentally-friendly materials, creating a safe haven for children, pets and adults. Their availability in natural colors ranging from whites to creams to sandy browns inspires a welcoming atmosphere for homeowners and potential buyers alike, according to Chris Stanley. Another popular trend is the use of natural materials. Wood, bamboo and grasses all bring an organic element into homes. "The more technology people are surrounded by, the more they crave an element of the outdoors", Stanley said. "Using woven wood shades and wood blinds brings a calming atmosphere to homes and apartments." 3. Construction demand eases Following two months of growth, the national construction industry contracted slightly in March with demand weakening across the sector, according to the latest Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI®). Falls in new orders and activity tipped the seasonally-adjusted index below the critical 50-point level to 48.7 (readings below 50.0 indicate a contraction in activity). House building was flat in March following eight consecutive months of expansion. The apartment sub-sector contracted for the second month in a row and engineering construction also lost ground. Commercial construction continued in positive territory in March building on a gradual recovery evident since January. Australian Industry Group Public Policy Director, Dr Peter Burn, remarked that the respondent businesses attributed the decline in housing new orders to the end of the first home buyers' boost and the rise in interest rates since October. New orders contracted following growth over the first two months of the year. This was, underpinned by a marked weakening in orders received by house building firms, and higher rates of decline in the engineering and apartment building sectors. In better news, employment remained relatively stable. 4. Assurance in insulation Good quality insulation is essential to any home, especially as we head into the colder months. However, recent reports of dodgy installations have highlighted the need to have confidence that the job has been well done, especially if you are planning to sell the property. For owners, buyers and property managers, an insulation status check by a certified official can offer protection for their families, building advisory service Archicentre said this week. Angus Kell, ACT & NSW State Manager Archicentre said it was important for vendors who have had insulation installed to have their homes checked before sale, to limit any legal liability in the case of an accident. Mr Kell warned that selling a home these days without certified building or safe conditions can become expensive for vendors, real estate agents and people involved in carrying out sub standard work. "Court cases in relation to illegally built balconies, where people have been injured, have stretched back to the original builder some thirty years previous," he said. If you have any concerns, call 13 17 92 to arrange a safety inspection or visit the Australian Government Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts website http://www.environment.gov.au/eehp/insulation/index.html. 5. Kicking back with the paper There's something comforting about sitting down with a newspaper, but does the same comfort apply to sitting on a pile of them? The 334 Bench is made of 3 parallel metal bars and 334 newspapers folded and stacked next to each other. The first in a series by UK design student Oscar Lhermitte, the bench is an exercise in recycling and building furniture without conventional screws, glues, soldering, etc. 6. Resistance is futile Some say you can class the population into three sectors - those who love Star Trek, those who love Star Wars, and those who don't care for either. In what may be the best opportunity `Trekkies' will have in coming light-years to deck out their homes, treasures such as Enterprise chairs, Quark's Bar furniture, Starfleet uniforms and large model spaceships are going on auction this weekend in the US. Straight from a dismantled Las Vegas attraction based on the famous franchise, auction house Propworx Inc. has a full list of the available items and auction details online. |
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson