Thursday, October 28, 2010
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson
Friday, October 15, 2010
Economic trends
• Investors are always looking out for “the next big thing”. Currently investors are fretting whether the US economy will experience a double-dip recession, in turn debating whether the Federal Reserve needs to apply more stimulus – more quantitative easing, or QE2.
• But closer to home there is a weather trend to watch – La Niña – an event associated with cooler, wetter weather. There hasn’t been a major La Niña event since the late 1990s and it has implications for a raft of businesses.
• Overnight, the World Meteorological Organisation released its latest El Niño/La Niña Update and warns of moderate to strong La Niña conditions over the coming 4 to 6 months.
El Niño, La Niña – what is it all about?
• Over time, Australians have heard a lot about El Niño. This is the weather event that most people associate with drought. And given that most of the noughties were characterised by drought, there has been plenty of discussion about El Niño in recent years.
• But now the discussion has shifted to La Niña. This is essentially the opposite of El Niño, associated with cooler, wetter weather in eastern and northern Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) also notes that there tends to be more tropical cyclones in northern Australia when La Niña events occur.
• In late September, BOM indicated that La Niña was well established in the Pacific and indicated that it will last until at least early 2011. The Climate Prediction Centre in the US has projected that La Niña will persist until at least the Northern Hemisphere Spring of 2011 – that is to around March 2011. The CPC says “many models forecast La Niña to strengthen through the November 2010 – January 2011 season before beginning to weaken.” In the US, La Niña autumn/winters tend to be warmer and drier for the Southwest but increasing the possibility of rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest.
• The CPC says that the last El Niño event extended from May 2009 to May 2010. Effectively there have been rolling El Niño events from April 2002 through to 2010, with only a brief La Niña from August 2007 to Jun 2008. The last major La Niña was a two year period from June 1998 to June 2000.
• In contrast to the dry noughties, the 1990s tended to be wetter than normal with a La Niña event occurring from 1995 to 1996 and then another event covering 1998 to 2000.
• The World Meteorological Organisation has just released its latest El Niño/La Niña Update, warning of moderate to strong La Niña conditions over the coming 4 to 6 months. And like the CPC and BOM, the WMO expects the La Niña event which began in June and July 2010 to extend until at least the first quarter of 2011. The WMO said the current La Niña became “moderate to strong” in August and continues at the same strength.
Wet weather on the way?
• The climate models say that cold, wet weather is on the way. Most people in the eastern states would say that it is already here. Queensland had its wettest September on record and Brisbane yesterday had its wettest October day on record. In addition, temperatures have been below-average in eastern and southern states. It was the coldest and wettest September in South Australia in 18 years. Melbourne had its coldest September in 16 years while Sydney had the coldest September in five years.
• The last major La Niña was in the late 1990s, and it is clear from the charts that this was the last time that rainfall across the capital cities was well above normal. For most of the noughties the rolling total of capital city rainfall was below average. But it’s worth noting that over the year to September 2010 that capital city rainfall was in line with the long-term average.
Implications of a La Niña weather event
• A raft of businesses and industries will be affected if a major La Niña event occurs across the summer months in Australia. Amongst those potentially affected are:
• Retailers of seasonal goods – clothing, electrical goods, outdoor equipment, swimming pool operators & equipment
• Utilities – reduced demand for power (air-conditioners, fans etc)
• Insurance companies – potential for floods, more traffic accidents
• Rural producers – effects will vary depending on where and when the rain falls, and in what quantities
• Builders/construction – potential for weather delays with more frequent rain days
• Good rains in recent months through Queensland, NSW and central Australia have served to lift dam levels, fill lakes and boost water flows in key river systems. But somewhat perversely the ending of the drought may reduce the urgency for reform of water allocations in the Murray Darling basin and delay moves to get more appropriate pricing of water to better reflect its scarcity value.
• While the ending of the drought will reduce demands on the Federal Budget for special assistance grants, the occurrence of major floods could result in different demands on government spending.
• The CPC has also noted that a deepening of the La Niña event could lead to more hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, disrupting oil production. So far the hurricane season has been relatively uneventful, but it does extend for another month or so until late November, so it bears watching.
What are the implications for investors?
• Retailers are already under pressure given that conservative consumers are reluctant to spend, so a mild, wet summer would represent an additional challenge. Myer currently is in the middle of a Mid Season Sale (ends October 17) with the catalogue dominated by Men’s and Women’s clothing items.
• It is hard enough for investors to account for the vagaries of the economy, let alone the vagaries of the weather. And while La Niña events have predictable effects, climate models aren’t able to accurately determine whether a mild La Niña event is in prospect or something more severe. Still, for investors it is a case of forewarned is forearmed.
Source Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson
Friday 08 October 2010 Aprons in the Gong Bring all your family and frineds & help raise funds for the National Breast Cancer Event in Wollongong! 1. Choice survey reveals what annoys Australians most AUSTRALIANS might live in the Lucky Country but a new survey shows they find plenty to moan about. Consumer group Choice has compiled a list of gripes in a survey of more than 1000 of its members. Read More... 2. RBA leaves rates on hold Homeowners and buyers again breathed a collective sigh of relief this week when the Reserve Bank (RBA) announced its decision to leave interest rates on hold for the fourth consecutive month. The central bank last raised the official cash rate 0.25 per cent in May to 4.50 per cent. In a statement announcing the decision, Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens hinted that the unsteady state of the global economy played a role in the decision. "Financial markets are still characterised by a degree of uncertainty, and are responding both to differences in growth outlooks between regions and evident strains on public finances and banking systems in several smaller countries in Europe", Governor Stevens said. Australia, on the other hand, is growing "around trend", with CPI inflation running at around 2¾ per cent over the past year. With that situation looking likely to continue in the near term, the Bank decided that its current stance is "appropriate for the time being". 3. No spring in mortgage sales The traditional spring increase in mortgage sales has so far failed to materialise this year, according to mortgage broker AFG's monthly Mortgage Index. The Index shows that instead of the usual 10 per cent increase in mortgage sales over August, this year's September's data was almost identical (down 0.3 per cent) to the month before. September sales figures were 20 per cent lower than for September 2009 with the two resource states showing the largest drop in comparative statistics. Queensland recorded a 31.8 per cent fall and Western Australia a 25.8 per cent fall compared to figures for September 2009, as uncertainties about the future of a possible mining super tax continue to affect property-buying behaviour in both states. The caution of consumers is further underlined by a jump in the take-up of fixed rate mortgages from 3.9 per cent of all mortgages sold in August, to 5.4 per cent - the highest level for fixed mortgages since June 2009. This suggests that more buyers expect further rate AFG Mortgage Index also shows that Loan to Value Ratios (LVRs), loans expressed as a proportion of the value of a property, remain at a low level of 63.0 per cent. Low LVRs also tend to reflect consumer caution. First home buying levels continued to normalise to trend, with mortgage sales to this sector comprising 12.6 per cent of all mortgages - the largest percentage since January 2010. 4. How much is the doggie in the household? A dog's life isn't cheap anymore, according to the latest in an on-going Social Indicator Series, which shows that Australian families spend more than $25,000 on their pet over its life-time. The Bankwest Social Indicator Survey, the 'Family Pooch Index', revealed the average Australian family outlays $2,452 per year for the care of their canine, on top of their initial purchase of the pup of $585. Over the average life span of a dog (ten years), this equates to more than $25,000. Not surprisingly, pet food and other gourmet doggy treats gobble up the bulk of the annual cost - $1200. This was followed by veterinary costs, at $450 per year, and additional dog care, such as grooming, dog walking, dog dietician and a dog trainer at $405 each per year. The research also revealed what many of us have suspected for a long time, namely that half of Aussie pet owners consider their pet to be equally important as their kids. An overwhelming 96 per cent of respondents consider their pet as a member of their family. "The old saying that a dog's life is cheap certainly doesn't ring true for most Australians," Bankwest Retail CEO Vittoria Shortt said. "This research shows that the average Australian family is prepared to pay in excess of $25,000 over the average life time of their family dog. "This is for just one dog, many people have more than one dog so they are paying out even more. "Given this is such a large amount of money, it's not surprising that 96 per cent of respondents said they consider their pet as a member of their family." If you are looking for a cheaper alternative for a family pet, it seems a fish and or pet bird are the way to go. Respondents who own a pet fish said yearly costs run at $610 to care for the pet. Birds however, are slightly more expensive in their upkeep - costing an Aussie family $810 each year. Cats cost, on average, $1,772 per year. 5. Approvals down Number of dwelling units approved fell in August, according to figures released this week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). ABS Building Approvals show that the total number of dwellings approved dropped 4.7 per cent in August 2010, seasonally adjusted, following a rise in the previous month. Queensland (0.9 per cent), South Australia (11.2 per cent) and Western Australia (0.9 per cent) recorded more dwelling approvals this month, while New South Wales (-16.0 per cent), Victoria (-1.4 per cent) and Tasmania (-10.5 per cent) recorded fewer dwelling approvals in seasonally adjusted terms. Private sector houses approved fell by 4.3 per cent due to falls in New South Wales (-7.5 per cent), Victoria (-7.7 per cent), Queensland (-7.0 per cent) while South Australia (3.6 per cent) and Western Australia (12.3 per cent) rose. The value of total building approved fell by 4.2 per cent in August in seasonally adjusted terms. The value of total residential building fell by 7.8 per cent while non-residential building rose by 3.1 per cent. 6. The strange relationship of order and chaos At times the world can seem like a mess, especially when we think time is getting away from us. Though that could be an illusion of personal perception. If so, the best thing might be to take a few deep breaths while finding your centre again, and not to have an "Order in Chaos" clock on your wall. On the other hand, if you like a bit of fun, the clock shows a strange relationship between order and chaos. Each number appears whole every hour, then as the minute hand rotates in the centre, the numbers split off into tiny fragments that twist, turn and shuffle themselves into foreign shapes before reuniting on the next hour. 7. A hotel with plenty of space The country that put the first man in space now has plans to open the first cosmic hotel for wealthy space tourists. Russian company Orbital Technologies have announced their aspirations to have a four-room guesthouse in orbit by 2016, the BBC reported recently. A spokesman from the company stated that the hotel would be comfortable, with space for up to seven passengers in the 20-cubic metre vessel. Passengers can also look forward to special meals prepared (before takeoff) by celebrity chefs and large portholes for viewing Earth from afar. |
Friday, October 1, 2010
Tears of a Turtle
Zooming through the Amazon in Peru on the way to our eco lodge our amazing guide Luis stopped the boat every now and then to point out some of the fascinating wildlife.
A cayman (a sort of a small crocodile) basking on the bank, a family of capybaras (squat wombat sized rodents) nestled nibbling away at food, birds galore and what would soon become my hands down favourites – small turtles stacked unmoving on logs.
The butterflies drink the turtle’s tears and get vital nutrients from doing so all the while cleaning the turtle’s eyes.
It was an amazing and unexpected synergy and a partnership you’d never predict unless you saw it happening.
If you’re the turtle – who in the business world out there could be your unexpected butterfly?
Courtesy of Kirsty Dunphey