Thursday, July 8, 2010
Thursday, July 1, 2010
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Friday, June 25, 2010
Will SMEs back Gillard?
While Julia Gillard's decision to challenge for the leadership of the Australian Labor Party has shocked no one, the speed at which support for Kevin Rudd evaporated was staggering.
Just a few days ago, Gillard was emphatically ruling out a try at the top job. This morning, after a lightening move from the ALP's Right faction, she is now Australia's first female Prime Minister.While questions will be asked about whether factional heavyweights should have as much power over the ALP – and for now at least, the Government – as they clearly do, it is equally obvious that the ALP had to move.Rudd simply had lost traction with the electorate. The negative momentum probably started with his decision not to proceed with the emissions trading scheme – an issue he famously described as "the greatest moral challenge of our time" – and gathered pace with the botched insulation scheme, the school buildings program and the Government's stance on asylum seekers.A $15 billion health reform didn't give Labor a boost in the opinion polls and the poorly-handled introduction of the Resources Super Profits Tax apparently sealed Rudd's fate.Of course, Rudd is now yesterday's man.The big question now is: can Julia Gillard lead Labor to a win in the Federal Election?Gillard obviously has a better chance than Rudd, and is likely to enjoy something of a honeymoon period with voters in the coming months. This will probably give Labor a good deal of momentum leading into the poll – this may also make it difficult for the Coalition to get its message through to voters.But Gillard may still find it very difficult to win over the SME community due to one key reasons – industrial relations.As the architect of the Fair Work IR regime, Gillard is perhaps the minister who has had the biggest direct impact on SMEs since the Rudd Government's election in 2007.Under this regime, we have seen the removal of unfair dismissal protections for thousands of businesses, new enterprise bargaining rules, new workplace flexibility rules for employees, and mass confusion over Gillard's Modern Awards system.The change from the Howard Government's Work Choices regime to the Fair Work regime has been complex, confusing and costly for many entrepreneurs and the worst may still be to come – many of the new Modern Awards start on July 1, as Gillard's prime ministership is just getting underway.Gillard and the Government rightly argued that Work Choices pushed the IR balance of power too far towards employers, but many entrepreneurs and employer groups believe Fair Work has pushed the pendulum back too far the other way.Gillard's stint as Prime Minister may we be very short if SMEs decide they simply cannot vote for the architect of the Fair Work regime.Source Smart Company www.smartcompany.com.au
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson

Friday 25 June 2010 Quote of the Week It is important to keep the promises made to friends. This is the true meaning of friendship. To become people who can do so, however, we must first learn to keep the promises we have made to ourselves. 1. Investors arrest slowdown Price growth for residential properties may slow down in 2010, but investors will keep interest alive in the market, according to industry analyst and economic forecaster, BIS Shrapnel. According to the company's Residential Property Prospects, 2010 to 2013 report, lending activity is already easing, with first-home buyer demand in the March quarter of 2010 down by 44 per cent on the same period last year and `upgrader' activity plateauing. This is flowing through to softer demand for residential property. BIS Shrapnel senior project manager and study author, Angie Zigomanis, says a combination of factors have caused the momentum that built up in house prices in the second half of 2009 to stall in 2010. "The strong price growth in the second half of 2009 was a rapid adjustment to housing variable interest rates that were at 40-year lows," says Zigomanis. "With interest rates quickly lifting from these `emergency' levels, and the current variable rate of 7.4 per cent now being close to long term trends, the recent levels of price growth cannot be maintained." BIS Shrapnel does not expect house prices to fall, however. Investors are beginning to return to the market and pick up some of the reduction in owner-occupier demand - loans to investors were up by an annual 26 per cent in the March quarter of this year. While rental growth did slow in 2009, part of the slowing was due to first-home buyers moving from rental to owner-occupation, as well as the lower interest rates reducing the incentive for landlords to pass on further interest rate rises. "Even though overseas migration inflows are steadily easing, a deficiency of stock is still in place with dwelling construction below underlying demand," says Zigomanis. "This is expected to put pressure on vacancy rates and result in stronger rental growth later in 2010. The deficiency of dwellings, and improved rental picture, will continue to maintain investor demand and assist prices. "In addition, the current round of interest rate rises is expected to have run its course, with further rises expected to be more moderate," adds Zigomanis. "Our forecast is for the cash rate to increase by 50 basis points in 2010/11, and a further 50 basis points in 2011/12. The more stable interest rate environment is expected to underpin purchaser confidence as economic conditions continue to strengthen, and should continue to push through moderate house prices rises." In effect, the surge in prices in the second half of 2009 in most cities has `front loaded' price growth in this upturn, leading to a flatter cycle in prices as the economic recovery continues. Higher interest rates will maintain price growth at a more moderate level, despite the acceleration in economic growth driven by the recovery in resources investment. "Normally price growth is moderate at the beginning of the upturn and accelerates to a peak at the end of the cycle as economic growth also peaks," explains Zigomanis. "However, the very low interest rates in 2009 initiated stronger rises, so the sharp 1.5 percentage point rise in the cash rate between October 2009 and May 2010 has already begun to strain affordability, causing future price growth to be more muted." Among the state capitals, BIS Shrapnel forecasts those starting from the lowest price base will experience the most solid price growth. Real house prices in both Sydney and Perth are still below their previous peak levels, and this should underpin stronger growth relative to the other capitals. Price levels in Adelaide are below the other mainland capitals. More moderate growth is expected in Brisbane, Hobart and Canberra due to weaker underlying demand and local economic conditions over the next three years, while the very strong price rises in Melbourne and Darwin have pushed affordability and will limit further rises. 2. Darwin tops sustainable cities index Darwin and Brisbane are better than the other capitals, but no Australian city has done well in the Australian Conservation Foundation's (ACF) first sustainable cities ranking. ACF's Sustainable Cities Index tracks the progress of Australia's 20 largest cities across 15 indicators: air quality, ecological footprint, green buildings, water, biodiversity, health, density, wellbeing, transport, employment, climate change readiness, education, food production, public participation and household debt. Darwin scored well with clean air, strong biodiversity and low levels of unemployment and household debt, but lost marks on health and preparedness for climate change. Perth came last on the list because of a very high ecological footprint per person and the amount of water supplied to houses relative to annual rainfall. While Perth's public transport system is better than many cities', it still scored poorly on transport with 641 private vehicles for every thousand people. Melbourne came seventh; Sydney was twelfth. Most cities were clustered around the middle of the scoring range. "Australia's major cities consistently rate among the most liveable, but liveability is not the same as sustainability," said ACF executive director Don Henry. "Australians use more water and energy and own more cars per person than the citizens of almost any other developed country. "Many decades of being wasteful with resources, combined with booming population growth, poor planning and a lack of infrastructure investment has come at a real cost to our economy, society and environment. "Our cities could be transformed into clean, efficient places with great public transport and happier, healthier residents. "In this federal election year it's up to our political leaders to prove they have the plans to deliver world class public transport systems, clean up Australia's vehicle fleet and make our cities truly sustainable." 3. Money for `Cool Ideas' Architects, building designers and specifiers are being asked to submit their 'Cool Idea' for a thermally-efficient workplace in a new competition that could win them a cool A$20,000. The competition was launched by BlueScope Steel at DesignEx in April in conjunction with the launch of BlueScope Steel's latest roofing product, Colorbond® Coolmax™ steel, which has been found to considerably reduce the annual cooling costs of a building. Already over 130 entries have been submitted. The 'Cool Ideas' competition runs until 30 November 2010. The judging panel comprises Justine Clark, editor of Architecture Australia; Bill Tikos, editor of The Cool Hunter and Adam Haddow, director of SJB Architects and winner of the 2009 Property Council Future Leader Award. To enter or to view submitted entries, visit www.colorbond.com/coolmax and in 25 words or less, tell BlueScope Steel your cool idea for creating a more thermally efficient building. 4. Tax time: invest in your property strategy In the lead up to a new financial year, Australia's largest independently-owned mortgage broker, Mortgage Choice reminds existing and potential property owners to make the most of their tax return. A great way for all residential market players to get ahead is to legitimately maximise any tax deductions before 30 June. Homeowners should also consider placing the resulting tax return directly into their home loan, while those looking to achieve home ownership status should contribute it into their deposit account. Investors may find a better use, depending on their goals. Mortgage Choice senior corporate affairs manager, Kristy Sheppard said that the end of the financial year presents an excellent opportunity to reassess your position and determine what strategies are available to you and how these can be used to benefit your property plans, being a time when many people consult their accountant and/or financial advisor for an annual financial health check. "Investors will be exploring tax deductions for their rental property or properties", Ms Sheppard said. "For example, you may be able to claim expenses such as outlay for travel to inspect an investment property, cost of advertising to attract a tenant, agent and/or management fees, body corporate fees, council rates, gardening, pest control, repairs and maintenance, water costs, home loan fees and loan interest. "For many, the potential tax benefits of negative gearing are the greatest lure to property investment. Negative gearing occurs when the combination of annual interest repayments plus any deductible expenses is higher than annual rent received from tenants. This allows eligible property upkeep and loan costs to be deducted from your gross income. Then you are taxed only on that reduced income. "This is especially popular with high income earners and those with larger loans, as the more money borrowed to buy a property, the more interest is owed, and therefore the bigger the possible tax deduction. For this reason and more, it is a good idea to consult a reputable tax adviser and mortgage broker before choosing a home loan and buying a property, to learn about the tax deductions available on your potential investment and what loan type suits your long-term strategy. "Moving on to prospective investors and homebuyers keen to enter the market, tax time presents a great opportunity to put a tax return to good use for the upcoming property purchase. "Firstly, lenders have tightened assessment criteria and now require borrowers to contribute higher genuine savings deposits accumulated or held over a period of three months or more. This is often 5% of the purchase price for homebuyers and up to 10% for investors. Keep in mind, equity from an existing property may be considered as genuine savings. So, it is worth considering assigning your tax return to a high interest savings account to reap the eventual benefits on your deposit amount. "Secondly, you may use your tax return to pay off other debts that feature a higher interest rate, so you have less debt when the time comes to apply for a home loan or mortgage top-up. "If you are already repaying a home mortgage, you may choose to contribute your return as a lump sum payment. Repaying your mortgage quicker speeds up the accumulation of your equity and reduces the length of the loan term and interest owed over that term. "If a borrower with a $300,000 home loan at 7% p.a. who is five years into their 30-year loan term contributes a lump sum payment of $500, they will save around $2,359 in interest plus one month off the loan term. However, if they did this every year, dividing the return by 12 and paying it each month over the entire term, they will save around $19,961 in interest plus 16 months. "Whatever your status, it is important to consult experts and ensure your decision is well thought out", she concluded. 5. Burger the candle at both ends While most fast food restaurants rely on visual images and past experience to draw people back to the counter time and time again, one savvy burger chain in the US has found a way to bring tantalising advertisements into homes via a different sense. Famous for their miniature burgers, White Castle are now offering burger-scented candles. Served up in a rectangular ceramic holder in the likeness of a box the burgers come in, it's one ad you can't avoid by changing the channel. According to NY Daily News, net proceeds will be donated to a charity for Autism. 6. Can an offer be too low?
Remember, a real estate transaction is basically a business deal - you make an offer, then if it is rejected, at least it's a starting point for both parties to negotiate. |
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson

Friday, June 11, 2010
Consumer sentiment; Housing Finance
• The Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer confidence index fell by 5.7 per cent in June – marking the third consecutive month of falls. In annual terms confidence is up just 1.7 per cent on a year ago.
• Over the past three months confidence has fallen by 13.7 per cent - the biggest quarterly fall since the period following collapse of Bear Stearns (April 2008).
• New home loans fell for the ninth time in ten months in April, down by 1.8 per cent. The number of loans to owner occupiers fell to the lowest level in 9 years. The average home loan across Australia stood at $286,900, up 7.6 per cent on a year ago.
• The value of investment loans rose for the second consecutive month up by 1.3 per cent in April. In annual terms investor finance is up 26 per cent on a year ago.
What does it all mean?
• Aussie consumers are sharply reigning in the exuberance that was evident earlier in the year. Consumer confidence has fallen for the third straight month and is barely higher than levels recorded a year ago. The interest rate hikes have been the main driver behind the less optimistic outlook. Especially given consumers have not had the opportunity to adjust and in the short term the impact on household budgets has been significant. Also the slide in equity markets certainly hasn’t helped confidence levels. In fact over the past three months confidence has fallen by almost 14 per cent – a result that was last seen over two years ago just after Bear Stearns collapsed.
• The latest consumer confidence result was flagged in the Roy Morgan survey released last week. Investors and analysts who seek timely readings of consumer confidence will be well served by tracking the Roy Morgan series each week. Especially given that it closely tracks the higher profile, Westpac and Melbourne Institute monthly consumer sentiment survey.
• Given the uncertainty in the economic environment and the attractive term deposit rates on offer, it is hardly a surprise that consumers widely believed that the safest place for savings is in the bank. Interestingly just three months ago paying down debt featured as a close second, however that view has shifted with consumers believing real estate being the second wisest place to park savings. No doubt the strength in property prices, falling unemployment and a growing population is resulting in investors looking at property as an attractive vehicle.
• The latest housing finance figures also confirm the attractiveness of property as an investment. While the number of loans for owner occupiers continues to slide, investment loans have tracked higher. Overall investment loans have posted decent gains for the past nine months and are now up 26 per cent on a year ago. The boost in the stock of investment properties should gain traction in coming months as economic conditions improve in the latter part of 2010.
• While the signs are encouraging on the investor front the same cannot be said for the owner occupier market. The cumulative interest rate hikes are certainly taking they toll on new housing activity. Housing finance has fallen by almost two per cent in April, and over the last ten months, housing finance has slumped by exactly 30 per cent. No doubt the likelihood of further rate hikes and the substantial growth in house prices are making potential home buyers rework their sums.
• Clearly the issues in the housing sector are centred around demand and supply of housing. The rate hikes have resulted in the demand for housing sliding (though from a very high base) however it would seem the stock of housing or new listings seem to be falling at a faster pace, a result that would justify the strength in house prices. However there are early signs that property prices are consolidating, and CommSec expects this trend to gain traction, with the lift in housing supply coming through the pipeline over coming months.
• When the latest consumer confidence result is coupled with yesterday’s weak business survey, it paints a picture of an economy that is going sideways at best. The implications for interest rates are clear. And with conservatism likely to continue, retailers will have to work hard for sales in coming months with consumers not willing to spend. Confidence is clearly paramount to the recovery cementing itself, and going forward the Reserve Bank may want to tread a little more cautiously on the rate hiking pathway, given that the global recovery is still in its infancy.
What do the figures show?
Consumer sentiment
• The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment fell by 5.7 per cent in June to 101.8. The index is now only up 1.7 per cent on a year ago, compared with the period in late 2009 / early 2010 where it was up over 30 per cent on a year earlier.
• The current conditions index fell by 8.7 per cent, while the expectations index fell by 3.5 per cent.
• Just one of the five components of the index rose in June
• The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago fell 17.7 per cent;
• The estimate of family finances over the next year fell by 4.2 per cent;
• Economic conditions over the next 12 months was higher by 2.8 per cent;
• The measure of economic conditions over the next five years fell by 9.0 per cent;
• The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item fell by 2.2 per cent.
• There was a sharp fall in the gauge of whether it was a good time to buy a home (down 15.8 per cent to 94.6). There was a more modest fall in the gauge of whether it was a good time to buy a car (down 1.5 per cent to 127.7)
• Aussie consumers believe that bank deposits are the wisest place for savings (29.2 per cent of respondents), closely followed by real estate (21.7 per cent), paying debt (16.7 per cent), and shares (11.0 per cent).
Housing Finance
• The number of new owner-occupier housing loans fell for the ninth time in ten months in April, down by 1.8 per cent to 47,077 new loans - a 9-year low.
• Construction loans fell by 4.8 per cent, loans for the purchase of established dwellings fell by 1.8 per cent, while loans for the purchase of newly erected dwelling rose by 6.3 per cent. Refinancing commitments fell by 5.3 per cent.
• The value of new housing commitments (owner occupier and investment) rose for the second straight month, up 0.8 per cent in April. Owner-occupier loans rose by 0.6 per cent while investment loans rose by 1.3 per cent.
• First home buyers accounted for just 16.3 per cent of all lending in April, well below the record high of 28.5 per cent set in May 2009. Fixed rate loans only accounted for 2.4 per cent of all loans in April. And the average home loan across Australia stood at $286,900, up 7.6 per cent on a year ago. • Banks financed 91.1 per cent of all home loans (by value) in April, down from 91.4 per cent in March.
What is the importance of the economic data?
• Housing Finance data is produced monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and shows commitments by lenders, such as banks, to provide finance for housing purposes. The lending figures relate to those looking to buy or build homes to live in as well as those seeking to buy or build homes for investment purposes. Generally people get their finance organised first, so the figures are regarded as a leading indicator on the housing market.
• Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the Index of Consumer Sentiment each month. According to Melbourne Institute: “The survey of consumer sentiment was first undertaken in 1973 and was conducted on a quarterly basis until 1976, a six-weekly basis from 1976 to 1986, and has been conducted monthly ever since.” Confident consumers may be more inclined to spend, especially on major items.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
• The Reserve Bank now has plenty of reasons to pause in its process of restoring rates to ‘normal’ levels. Not only is housing lending sliding, but retail spending, gauges of consumer and business confidence and activity, have all been soft in the past few months. It may prove temporary weakness of the economy, but for the Reserve Bank, it should be a case of being safe, rather than sorry.
• Looking forward, the weakness in recent housing data and increase in housing supply should result in the housing sector cooling over the next few months. It is understandable that a period of consolidation is to be expected after what has been a phenomenal run over the last year.
• Retailers would certainly be concerned that Aussie consumers are now paring back confidence levels. Especially given that despite the relatively positive attitude over the last few months, spending has remained subdued. In annual terms retail spending has recorded little growth, and that has prompted major retailers to slash prices – a trend that will remain part of the retail landscape for the next few months.
Source Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Latest Property News from Ted Hanson